Where are we getting our data to predict the mid-term elections?

Written by Byron Williams

Thursday, 20 May 2010

Now that Rand Paul has defeated the establishment-backed candidate Trey Grayson for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate seat in Kentucky, as did Joe Sestak in his Democratic primary victory over Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania.

And Democratic incumbent, Sen. Blanche Lincoln is in a runoff for her party’s nomination in Arkansas; what does it all mean?

Is there a connection between the recent results and last year’s elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and Massachusetts?

Truthfully, all we can glean from last week’s elections is that Paul is the Republican nominee in Kentucky; Sestak is the Democratic nominee in Pennsylvania; and Lincoln is in a runoff in Arkansas.

I suspect anyone attempting to provide any lasting trends that will somehow carry over into the mid-term elections is probably pulling that data from just below their abdomen. I have absolutely no idea what the recent election results mean for the elections in November.

It’s too early to conclude whether the 2010 election will be akin to 1994 results, when the Republicans took the House and Senate, as some were predicting back in January/February. All Republicans seem to have going for them is anger and opposition to anything proposed by President Obama. How long can that be sustained?
Sure, there is an anti-incumbent mood in certain places of the country. Many voters have openly expressed their anger at Washington. But can those emotional factors in May sustain themselves so that it becomes the tidal wave of change in November?

I find it somewhat amusing, disingenuous, and ironic that those who rail against Washington the most do so until they’ve won an election. After that, the pre-election anger that was once on constant boil usually reduces to a slow simmer, rising to a fever pitch only around reelection time.

Former House Speaker Sam Rayburn may have best summed up the culture of Washington in eight words, “If you want to get along, go along.” No matter how angry a candidate professes to be, their effectiveness as a legislator will in some measure depend how well they heed Rayburn’s bipartisan advice.

It seems unrealistic to determine any trends from last week’s outcome. What if the economy has clearly turned around, which is symbolized by most as a downturn in unemployment? Will there still be anger?

Moreover, by November many Americans would have experienced the benefits that were front-loaded in the healthcare legislation passed and signed into law. If there is lower unemployment and aspects to the healthcare legislation that are favorable in November, I just don’t see as many pitchforks and torches.

What impact will the British Petroleum oil spill have on the election? What are the political ramifications now that a portion of the spill has been picked up by the so-called “loop current”, which is a stream of faster moving water that circulates around the Gulf before bending around Florida and up the Atlantic coast?

Will it be viewed as Obama’s Katrina? Or will it be a clarion call for more regulation of the oil industry?

The BP oil spill has already cost lives, taken a tremendous toll on the environment, certain to adversely impact the economy, along with the dubious distinction of having more unanswered questions than logical answers.

How can we forget the influence of the Tea Party movement? There seems to be an absolute aspect to the movement, though somewhat successful in the primaries, may not be conducive to victory in the November election.

If the political adage is true that one runs to their base during the primary and to the center in the general election, it becomes unclear how Tea Party-backed candidates will be able to achieve that mission given the absolute culture that led to their primary success.

Also, Democrat, Mark Critz’s victory over Tim Burns to fill the final months of the late Rep. John Murtha’s term in western Pennsylvania, at least in May, tells us there is not quite the anger in what was viewed as a prototypical race for Republicans to recapture the House.

This represents only a portion of what is known about the upcoming mid-term election. And it does not factor the unpredictability of engaging simultaneously in two wars.

There are just too many yet-to-be realized variables over the next five months to determine today who will control the House and Senate in 2011. If anyone suggests otherwise, well, you know where they got their information.