"American politics, when matched with absolute power, fear and change it can still produce victory.

Since no one has ever won a November presidential election in May, any pre-election analysis put forth is at best speculation—this column being no exception.   Assuming Barack Obama is the Democrat’s nominee, he goes into the general election against John McCain with a number of advantages.

According to the New York Times poll, Obama currently enjoys a seven-point national lead over McCain. He will also most likely have a decided money advantage. 

When it comes to campaign money, the Democratic Party 2008 is the Republican Party circa 2004.  Political money tends to flow toward the presumptive favorite.  Since the 2006 mid-term election the Democrats have worn that mantra.

The Obama campaign, in particular, has mastered internet fundraising in such a way that it makes George Bush’s famed “Pioneers” look like 1849 prospectors.

Moreover, the Democrats are expected to gain seats in the House and Senate.  They have already won seats in the House once thought to be untouchable.  House seats that belonged to former Majority Leader Tom DeLay and former Speaker Dennis Hastert are now in the Democrat’s columns.

After a stinging loss in a Louisiana special election last month, Republicans invested $1.3 million and dispatched Vice President Dick Cheney in a last minute effort to retain a Mississippi congressional seat in one of the most reliably conservative districts in the nation.

McCain must also campaign with the anvil of George W. Bush around his neck. If McCain is caught in the quicksand of defending the last eight years he could plausibly find himself on the short end of the worst Republican defeat since the man he replaced in the Senate, Barry Goldwater, lost to Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

In the latest ABC, CBS, and Gallup polls, the president has a job disapproval rating of 66, 63, and 68 percent respectively.  And only the ABC poll has the president’s approval rating above 30 percent.

These dismal poll numbers come underneath a backdrop that shows 81 percent of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.  And it doesn’t help McCain’s cause that former Republican Congressman, Bob Barr, announced his presidential run as a Libertarian this week, opining that McCain is not true conservative.

Then there is the head to head match up between McCain and Obama.  On issues ranging from the economy, healthcare, the war in Iraq, gas prices, immigration, and ethics, the majority of voters polled trust Obama to deal with these issues more effectively than McCain.

What does all this mean?  Speculatively speaking, it could mean that McCain has Obama right where he wants him.

With the Democrats primed to be in charge of the legislative and executive branches of government, one of the tragic lessons of the Bush Administration is the arrogance embedded when one party controls all three branches. Lest we forget the corrupting nature of absolute power is bipartisan. 

After four years exiled to minority party status in Congress and eight years of viewing the Oval Office through the window, what would inhibit Democrats from exercising their seldom used muscles of hubris? It is astonishing to conceive, but recent Republican ineptitude could serve the interest of the McCain campaign.

Also, the one issue where McCain is favored over Obama to address more effectively is terrorism.  Though it is only a single issue, it is the issue that brings with it a certain amount of fear. 

Fear has a way of negating other issues of importance, especially if a terrorist attack would occur just before the election.  For all of the public’s understandable desires for change, will it trump the primordial impulses of fear?

But this year’s primary season strongly suggest the old rules many not apply. In a McCain v. Obama presidential race the likelihood that more states will morph into purple from their traditional red and blue is greater than at any time in recent memory.

It’s been said that in communications familiarity breeds apathy, but in American politics, when matched with absolute power, fear and change it can still produce victory.